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Predictive Power

Below, we present the prediction performance on an 'out-of-sample' test set of European ancestry first-degree relatives in the UK Biobank. These individuals were completely excluded from model development, providing us an opportunity to assess the actual predictive power of our polygenic scores.

Sibling pairs offer a way to evaluate how well our predictors capture direct biological effects. We demonstrate our ability to predict, from DNA alone, which sibling expresses a trait (e.g., type 2 diabetes or red hair), or, in the case of quantitative phenotypes, which sibling has a higher value (e.g., taller or higher BMI).